Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Good luck to Berard

He's hard to picture as a Flyers d-man, but I hope it happens for Bryan Berard, Philadelphia's new training camp tryout.

He made it on an NHL roster doing the same thing last year on Long Island, so here's hoping he defies the odds again. Any Berard update is always tempered by the disappointment of what could have been. But on the other side of the coin, it's good to see him still making a go of it. Berard was a serviceable defenseman last season, particularly early on, providing occasional spice to the Islanders' struggling powerplay.

But whether from injuries or fatigue (or both), his effectiveness declined and his output never matched his hot training camp start or the offensive d-man label he re-inherited. His defense was by no means like Marc-Andre Bergeron's, but it wasn't stellar. By the late stages of last season, we were almost equally surprised when both he and Marc-Andre Bergeron (dumped at the deadline) held up their own end.

Berard's first injury (groin) happened two weeks into the season, and between Nov. 15 (when he returned) and Jan. 16, he had exactly one point. He was again playing around 20 minutes by February and March -- he just wasn't getting many points. (Granted, no one on the Island racked up points.)

Which reminds us why defensive depth is always nice. The Flyers have a young-ish defensive corps outside of Kimmo Timonen and Derian Hatcher (whose knee will probably be a question the rest of his career). Most of their late-20s guys are not what you'd consider "prime" guys, so it's conceivable Berard could steal an "experienced veteran" depth spot from one of them if he has a good camp. If so, you have to picture him as an injury fill-in and a complement to their powerplay when needed. When not relied on too heavily, his presence could be a true bonus.

Berard impressed with play and attitude on a tryout during last season's camp. Here's hoping he can do it again.

Friday, August 22, 2008

We just need more team facial width

When coaches and pundits talk about needing more "team toughness," what they really mean is more team "face width."

Ha. In the "we needed to use the grant money on something" department, a Brock University study found that NHL players with wider-proportioned faces served more time in the penalty box. Because writers who cover scientific/academic studies always jump to a headline-worthy conclusion, the article implies that such players are more aggressive.

Nonetheless, the obvious caveats: 1) they only measured the Canadian Six teams; 2) they based it on headshots, not actual measurements of their faces; 3) even if the wide boys do rack up more PIM, it could easily be because refs interpret them as more aggressive. There is a legion of academic work examining how humans interpret and draw instant conclusions about all kinds of facial attributes -- from whether they want to jump into bed with the person to whether the person might be a con man. So while we all know NHL referees are the Absolute Supreme Bastions of Impartial Judgment, they may yet succumb to the same human follies that plague the rest of us from time to time, such as whether or not that was obviously a hook nose. Time to add "whether Devorski thinks you're a goon" to the variables in facial cue studies.

That said, don't tell me you didn't immediately conjure images of a past wide-mugged goon or two when you first heard about this study.

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Speed kills, hopefully doesn't injure

Just when I was having coverage envy over the transcripts provided by LA Daily News beat man Richard Hammond from his extensive interview with new Kings coach Terry Murray [those links are broken up into several posts by topic], Newsday checks in with some thoughts from Scott Gordon about the logistics of settling and his practice philosophy.

Not quite the pages and pages of stuff on youth, coaching, toughness, etc., that Kings fans got on Murray, but it's only Gordon's first week. Murray's sit down happened after a month on the job, a job he won much earlier in the offseason.

Anyway, the salient thing for me was a little expounding on Gordon's love of speed: Not only does he see speed potential on the Isles roster (agreed), but he wants to instill a higher tempo by practicing drills at an "overspeed" rate. A rate in which, from the sounds of it, players are pushing the limits of their balance, "past their comfort level."

That way, the theory goes, even when they dial it down to a "safe" speed during real games -- which is probably necessary to properly read and react without overskating plays, anyway -- they'll still have high tempo as their default.

This is an interesting concept, one that I imagine will require the right kind of sale to convince players. ("You want me to increase my odds of losing an edge and crashing into the boards?") And it's the first specific tactic to come up where critics might chide -- particularly after an in-practice injury: "Ack, but he was a goalie. What does he know about players doing X?"

I'm eager to see if this takes, and if we'll notice the difference.

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Kelley mails it in, and other shocking news

Soo slooooow, these August days of hockey be. So let's react to a random dose of "news" and opinion around the league, beginning with the beloved Isles:

The "I'm on vacation autotext" column. I've often enjoyed his stuff, but my god did SI's longtime hockey reporter Jim Kelley mail this one in. His column on the Islanders' hiring of -- well, no, actually, it's more about one line new coach Scott Gordon said in his press conference -- is littered with all of the trite pseudo-history every writer lazily throws together when they need to mention something about the Islanders.

According to Kelley's theorem, the Isles are dysfunctional, they've had a lot of coaches since 1994, Snow has no prior GM experience, so mentioning aspirations for the Stanley Cup (you know, that shiny thing everyone is in this for) amid 2+ hours of interviews was foolish of Gordon. Not that Kelly bothered to catch any of the interview footage, by the looks of it. Coverage like this does not advance information to anyone: it just ticks the club's fans off, while it misguides fans of other teams who don't pay close attention to the other club. It's like going to an article about the Blackhawks only to read, "Bill Wirtz destroyed this team and its fan base." Thanks for the memo, but what's happening with the club now?

[Update 8/22: Former Isles PR man Chris Botta -- who has, ahem, a tad more reach than I -- tackles a different lazy facet of Kelley's mailed-in-piece. That's nice to see -- not just as an Islanders fan but also as someone who generally roots against misinformation.]

Prospect Quits at Age 19. Apparently, the Blue Jackets have lost the 37th overall pick from 2007, Stefan Legaine, who is quitting the game. There are a hundred reasons why a kid -- even a well-regarded one -- could say enough is enough. You hate to see someone throw away a chance at financial security at a still-maturing age, but I can imagine a lot of ways a kid would get to that point. Not to speculate, but the quote from his father ("Until September 20th [when training camp opens], he hasn't quit anything") reminds me of *shudder* hockey parents whose kids' careers are their sole focus. Again, not saying that's the case here; just saying the overbearing parent is a scourge in any sport.

Likewise, I'm reminded of Alexander Daigle's own journeys through vocation crises. It's all a reminder that these humans who we pin our hockey hopes and passions on are often just adolescents going through their own process of self-discovery -- often complicated by pressures from those around them.

Who are the Top 50 Trade Values in the NHL? TSN columnist Scott Cullen, with a nod to Bill Simmons, tries to drill down the top 50 players by trade value in the NHL. This is no small effort. The idea is much more conducive to NBA rosters (where Simmons originated the idea), because those are largely confined to five starters with well-defined roles plus a "sixth man." Things like age and contract term/value are key to the rankings. It's a fun list, and you can debate the names and rankings all day. So I'll take issue with one that immediately popped out: Tomas Kaberle at #43.

Cullen reasons that Kaberle's is a relative bargain contract at $4.25M through 2011. My quibble: He has a no-trade clause! That clause, which apparently did not expire this summer, rather erodes his trade value. The fact that he has leverage over where he'd end up -- if he'd end up elsewhere -- should mean that, as with Bryan McCabe, another GM won't give you full value in a trade. Kaberle's off my list.

Ryan Whitney has Surgery, Out 3-5 Months. That is a sizable blow -- especially since, for some reason, surgery wasn't decided upon and conducted until now. But if it fixes the problems that slowed his production last year, his return should be a nice boost for the Pens come stretch-drive time.

Generalissimo Francisco Franco is Still Dead. Speaking of the "No Trade Leafs," this guy Mats Sundin -- you may have heard of him -- hasn't signed yet. Thought you'd like to know.

Of Course You Realize, This Means War. First they took Branislav Mezei. Then they took Dubie. But now, oh-ho-ho now, they took Ladislav Nagy. I'm, like, so totally boycotting the Great Threat that is the oil-drenched Mother KHL. They're stealing all of the players we fans hold dear. Where else in North America will we possibly find the talent to replace them?

Monday, August 18, 2008

Portrait of the Coach as a Young Man

Back in that innocent, transitional time when hockey trading cards still came with bubble gum, new companies joined the game to turn our larks into another cold, heartless quick buck. But for a while there, while different companies tried different gimmicks ("Ooh! A hologram!") to gain traction, it was quite a ball.

Pro Set's strategy revolved around quantity, but they had a nice product with some fun gimmicks. One was cards for coaches, something I thought was long overdue but which sadly never caught on (I guess a guy in a suit isn't as appealing as a rotund manager in a baseball uniform). Thankfully, Al Arbour was back with the Isles long enough to have his own place in trading card history.

Another fun thing from Pro Set was their "Series II" within a season that went way beyond (again, in quantity) what other companies included in their batch of late-traded players. These series included the infamous coaches' cards but also pretty much any traded vet or new youngster they could get a shot of.

Sometimes that youngster was a future star whose free agent status would dominate NHL talk in summer 2008 (oh, *sniff* he was so young)...


...and sometimes, he was just a backup goalie and future promising young coach who would get his first big shot in 2008 (*sniff* oh, the Nordiques were so bad then):

Sunday, August 17, 2008

The Weight Question

It is not polite to ask someone about their weight, but it is so bloggone normal to use 93 cheap puns on a player's name to help the season go by.

So: can we expect the Isles' last free agent addition to pull his own Weight?

I tackled this issue a bit in the old space when the Isles were rumored to be looking at him. But at that point I was more focused on my fear that they would overpay the man and create unreasonable expectations he'd never live up to. At $1.75 mil (potentially $4 mil+ with bonuses), that fear now appears unfounded -- although only time will tell us what those bonuses are and how easily they can be met. (If you've seen them or know where to look, do let me know.)

The Gift of Gab
This time I want to go into a little more detail on what the Isles bought, and how we can expect him to perform. Anyone who saw him at the recent Open House or caught his candid interviews on ITV can catch the vibe that he is a solid character. From what it's like to move the family again, to how Wayne Gretzky told him what his new number should be (some guy on a long-term deal has his traditional #39), to how it felt to be buried by management last season, he'll tell you how it is in a frank but respectful way -- or as captain Bill Guerin jabbed: "Get ready for some long-winded answers." Isles fans can expect him after games to speak honestly about the team's performance this season.

In fact, the one area where he seems to not speak openly is when a team's management is in the process of shafting him. Both in St. Louis and Anaheim last year, he took it on the chin and didn't raise a team-distracting fuss when management was using him and speaking to him in a way far below what he was told when acquired.

But will Weight's presence on the Islanders' roster help them win more games than they would have won without him?

As usual, there are multiple ways to look at the matter. The easy way is to say he's old and done. The measured way is to figure out what he's done recently and project what he could add to the team in a non-worst-cast scenario.

Old Man near the Sea

Let's start with the ugly part:

Weight hasn't nabbed 60 pts. since 2003-04. He hasn't netted 20 goals since 2000-01 with Edmonton (25 G, 91 P). He's 37 and will turn 38 at mid-season. Last year he went from 16 minutes per game (with poor wingers) in St. Louis to 12 minutes per game (and no wingers) in Anaheim, who acquired him only because the numbers worked to fit Scott Niedermayer back into their cap. His game has always been built on speed and passing, but the former has receded since his heyday. To top off this leaflet for the "he's old and washed up" crowd, Weight has had fairly significant abdominal, hip and shoulder injuries since 2002. Speed, most cheetahs have found, is no friend of hip and abdominal pains.

Reason for Hope: Powerplay and Guts
But the reason the abdominal/hip injuries affected him for so long is also one of the reasons we can hope he brings something useful to the Islanders: Weight played through the sprained pelvis that ultimately necessitated abdominal surgery. As a team leader (he was the Blues' $9 million center), he seemed to do everything he could to get back into the lineup and remain there, demonstrating the classic hockey "play through the hangnail" ethos that is so foreign to MLB. Blues followers never heard him complain, but there were always whispers well into the next season about how painful the injury was, and how the recovery was prolonged by his continued play.

He assured Isles fans at the Open House that, despite thoughts of retirement last season, he is fit and ready to go. He obviously has some incentives, including proving that he's not done as well as getting to -- and beyond -- the 31 points he needs to reach 1,000 for his career.

He also said that about a year-and-a-half ago -- coincidentally, when Bill Guerin was a Blue -- Weight was playing some of the best hockey of his career, resurrecting a nearly lost Blues season after the mid-season hiring of Andy Murray as coach. I'd say his best was actually in the 2003 playoffs, when he manned the point on the powerplay after Al MacInnis was injured and -- with 5G, 8A in seven games -- almost carried the Blues past the Canucks despite half the team being felled by the flu.

That series was Weight at his best: rallying the troops through adversity and asserting himself on the powerplay. If it ever repeats on the NHL Network's "Classic Series" program again, DVR it and you'll see what I mean. Whether he can replicate some of that six years later is naturally a question of age and health. But my guess is that he'll do it and whet our appetite some nights, while age (i.e. the weakened ability to recover quickly) will stymie him and frustrate us on other nights.

To that point, Weight's powerplay numbers have in fact gone down in recent years. But there are two factors beyond age that may be affecting that: He was on some horrendous powerplay clubs in St. Louis after MacInnis retired and Chris Pronger was dumped. And last year in particular, his powerplay minutes were not spent with, erm, "ideal" teammates, as the team tried to revolve its number one unit around Paul Kariya and Keith Tkachuk.

Lasting Impact is 'In the Room'
So where are we going with this subjective thesis? Essentially, despite a fresh start I don't expect Weight to surpass his recent numbers. (Shock!) A mere repeat of 2006-07's 16-43-59 would be glorious, even if it cost us bonuses that took us up near that $4 mil. That said, with faith and opportunity from management like he hasn't had in recent years, and with finishers like Guerin and perhaps Kyle Okposo, and puckmovers like Marc Streit and Mike Comrie, there should be ample opportunity for him to rack up points while improving last season's woeful PP unit.

Then there's that other area, the fabled intangibles. As I mentioned, Weight is widely perceived as a stand-up guy in the room. Even if that character has zero effect on this season's final standings, it should still have an important, mentoring effect on the youngsters in this club's all-important youth movement. You know, the ones who will be leading the Isles and talking of past mentors when we recall Weight as one of those veterans from the "transition years."

So one more slanted factoid that may reflect his effect in the room: Last season, the Weighted Blues were 16-11-2 and in the playoff race before trading him for the younger, contract-controlled Andy MacDonald (MacDonald was signed through this year, and the Blues understandably worried about how they'd attract another center on the market). But after the trade, there was a noticeably sour shift to the tone coming out of the Blues' room, and the team went 17-25-11 the rest of the way to finish ... one spot behind the 26th-place Islanders.

Friday, August 15, 2008

Parrish the thought

I love* it when agents pimp their players to the press: "No really, there's interest in my guy! Tell the fans! Spread the buzz!"

*may be sarcastic

But it's particularly amusing when an agent ties the future of his average player to the future of a superstar. Don't get me wrong: The way Vancouver sees its cap situation, it very well may not sign Mark Parrish until they know Mats Sundin wants no part of them. But the implication that Parrish is a "Plan B" for Sundin's "Plan A" is laughable hyperbole. (Granted, these are not the agent's direct words, but all agents are guilty of false innuendo until proven innocent.)

The way the NHL circle of illogic works, Brendan Shanahan's future is also tied to Sundin's. (In this latter instance, it's not the agent but rather Blues GM John Davidson who's taking advantage of a little free agent uncertainty to milk fan nostalgia).

Now, the Canucks need offense from somewhere, and they've found the pickings slim this summer, so they may indeed bid on Parrish. But not by preference. It's like when the Mrs. sends me to a big box home store with a $10 off coupon. By God, there's nothing there I need or want -- certainly not a nice copy of NHL 2K9 -- but I'm too cheap not to use the coupon for something. So I come home with a throwaway pillow for the dog. Sundin is that piece of electronics you can't buy here; Parrish is the dog pillow.

Disturbingly, the agent (or perhaps the reporter from a different *cough* "source") also implies the Islanders have "inquired" about Parrish. Using my AgentSpeak-to-Truth(TM) conversion table, "inquired" is the least significant of verbs in the agent's rumor-mongering arsenal. Where "pursuing" means a team has made an offer and "interested" means they've discussed general money and term, "inquired" means they've talked and asked, "Is he desperate enough to take the league minimum? We'll even send a taxi."

So, though it's against their youth movement and a laughable suggestion, I suppose the Islanders may have asked about Parrish, reasoning that he would be easy insurance if he came cheap (not impossible, considering he will still be paid handsomely by the Wild).

But it doesn't make sense for our youth movement to sign him to real dollars, and he won't sign for a paltry sum (not with the Canucks throwing money around), so it's not gonna happen.

Nor do I want it to. I liked Parrish, he did good things as an Islander, it was too bad he had to leave the first time. But we knew in 2007 that he wasn't going to be worth what he would get from his home-state Wild, and now the Wild know that, too, having bought him out.

Plus, seeing him as an underachieving Islander in the sunset of his career would only remind of bad things, like the Mad Mike asset mismanagement move that first brought him here. Not Parrish's fault that he was acquired with a stiff for two guys who got much, much better after they left the Island. But still. Until my therapist works me through these issues, I cannot welcome him back. Like the hilarious Gnarls Barkley relationship breakup video, it shouldn't work this way, but it does.

So I'm sorry, Mark. Good luck in Vancouver.